Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.90     76.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.6  20.7  22.8  19.2  18.5  16.8  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7  96.5  96.5  96.5  96.5  98.6 105.1 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  40.0  46.0  28.0  14.0 -14.0  15.0   5.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  54.0  57.0  64.0  62.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.3%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       17.4%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%       11.5%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       11.5%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.2%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       15.1%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        6.5%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        4.8%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.4%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%