Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.8  20.7  19.0  22.2  22.3  21.3  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         83.6  83.6  83.6  85.7  90.1  85.7  77.4  73.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   1.0 -11.0 -14.0  -7.0   0.0  51.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  48.0  46.0  50.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.4%       17.4%       26.4%
 25kt / 24h       31.7%       37.6%       34.7%
 30kt / 24h       27.8%       29.0%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.8%       29.0%       27.4%
 40kt / 24h       17.2%       26.8%       22.0%
 45kt / 36h       20.5%       30.1%       25.3%
 55kt / 36h       16.3%       17.2%       16.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%        9.7%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.9%        7.5%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%        7.5%        8.9%