Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70     76.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  22.6  19.8  18.5  22.0  20.6  16.1  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  24.0  21.0  19.0  14.0  18.0  14.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  80.7  82.9  82.9  74.4  72.4  68.5  68.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -8.0 -25.0 -27.0 -16.0  14.0  -2.0   6.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0   6.0   2.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%        5.6%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       16.6%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       12.4%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%       12.4%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       10.5%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        7.3%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        2.8%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.7%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%