Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     75.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  20.0  18.4  19.6  21.2  18.0  18.9  20.2  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         86.5  88.6  90.7  88.6  84.4  78.5  74.8  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -25.0 -27.0 -22.0  -2.0   7.0  16.0  33.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  41.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0  -7.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.7%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        1.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        0.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        1.2%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        0.5%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%        1.4%        7.1%