Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     75.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.9  25.7  22.7  23.5  26.9  24.1  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        112.9 115.1 112.9 104.4  96.6  94.8  91.2  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -13.0 -12.0   4.0  20.0   6.0   8.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  49.0  53.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -11.0 -10.0  -7.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        0.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h       13.7%        1.4%        7.5%