Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     73.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  23.9  18.5  19.1  26.1  22.3  26.2  31.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        127.0 120.1 115.7 111.5 101.6 103.5 101.6 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -13.0  -5.0 -19.0   5.0   5.0  32.0  22.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  13.0  16.0  19.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.4%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        1.5%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        1.2%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       13.6%        2.9%        8.2%