Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     72.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  19.8  20.5  21.3  26.5  21.1  22.9  32.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  18.0  13.0  10.0  10.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 115.7 111.5 107.4 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   3.0  18.0 -14.0  13.0  27.0  40.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  51.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   5.0   2.0   8.0  12.0   9.0  21.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.9%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.9%        1.2%