Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20     71.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  20.3  21.3  27.4  23.2  20.3  26.4  29.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.1 113.6 107.4 105.5 105.5 103.5  99.8  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  18.0 -14.0  -5.0  21.0  27.0  33.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   5.0   2.0   9.0  15.0   7.0  10.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        9.9%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.3%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.2%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       12.3%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%        9.1%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        9.1%        3.5%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       15.0%        5.6%       10.3%