Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  18.2  23.2  24.3  18.4  23.3  27.2  26.1  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  14.0  10.0   9.0   9.0  13.0  14.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 109.4 105.5 105.5 101.6  99.8  98.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0   8.0  23.0  13.0  30.0  66.0  12.0  20.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   9.0  19.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        8.3%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        2.0%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        2.3%        1.8%