Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.50     68.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  21.8  24.3  22.0  19.5  25.7  24.6  34.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        102.4  98.5 100.5 100.5  93.0  93.0  93.0  91.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  23.0  13.0  36.0  45.0  44.0  14.0  15.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  53.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   5.0   9.0  10.0  14.0  18.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.3%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%        9.2%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        3.0%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.9%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       14.2%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%        5.5%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h       18.9%       18.9%       18.9%
 70kt / 48h       18.9%        3.8%       11.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%        4.2%        8.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons