Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210108 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  21.5  17.4  15.4  17.1  22.8  29.8  37.9  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  10.0   8.0  12.0  13.0   8.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.5  98.5  96.6  93.0  91.2  91.2  82.7  84.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  38.0  29.0  29.0  33.0  18.0  40.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  59.0  55.0  60.0  58.0  66.0  65.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.4%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       16.1%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        8.7%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        8.7%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.9%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       25.4%       13.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%       14.0%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.1%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        6.9%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.2%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons