Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.60     66.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  13.3  13.3  11.8  12.7  19.7  24.5  22.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  96.2  96.2  96.2  96.2  98.0  96.2  96.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  40.0   4.0  11.0  41.0  43.0  46.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        2.4%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        1.0%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons