Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     66.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  17.7  15.5  18.8  20.9  24.1  33.7  30.4  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   6.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.2  96.0  94.3  97.7  99.4  88.0  92.7  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  10.0  34.0  67.0  22.0  29.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -13.0 -20.0 -11.0 -22.0 -16.0 -32.0  -9.0 VF VF VF  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons