Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     65.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  15.0  18.9  20.7  22.8  30.0  28.1  30.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  94.3  97.7  97.7  89.6  96.0  91.1  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  35.0  67.0  61.0  11.0  34.0   2.0 -32.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  54.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  52.0  46.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -17.0 -11.0 -13.0 -21.0 -27.0 -22.0  -2.0 VF VF  F VF VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons