Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210109 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     64.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.8  18.4  17.0  21.2  21.9  19.7  15.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0   8.0  10.0  12.0   5.0   7.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.2 106.2 106.2 106.2 108.0 108.0 104.4 115.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  55.0  27.0   7.0  31.0  -2.0   8.0 -24.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  56.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0 -11.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        0.7%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        2.0%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons