Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210109 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     63.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  13.2  14.1  14.7  23.7  19.9  20.1  16.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        109.8 108.0 108.0 108.0 106.2 108.0 119.4 127.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  28.0   8.0  21.0  21.0  13.0 -27.0 -22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  54.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0  -7.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        5.4%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.8%       22.8%       22.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.8%        2.1%       12.5%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%        8.8%       22.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons