Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40     59.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  21.9  23.5  21.8  15.0  17.0  16.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   8.0   7.0  18.0  21.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.6 118.5 120.5 120.5 126.5 137.3  49.0 122.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  -4.0 -12.0  -8.0  -2.0   5.0  -3.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        2.5%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        1.7%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons