Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210111 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     57.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  19.5  13.5  16.1  21.6  18.6  30.4  23.6  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.6 118.5 122.4 124.4 130.7 137.3  45.1  80.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   0.0 -12.0  -7.0 -17.0   7.0 -13.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  48.0  46.0  49.0  46.0  52.0  51.0  U  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.6%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons