Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH082021 210111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  10.4  14.1  18.7  18.1  15.7  13.7  18.4  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  11.0  16.0  20.0  26.0  24.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.5 122.4 124.4 128.6 135.1 139.6  60.0  51.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -13.0 -11.0  -6.0 -18.0  35.0  -7.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  43.0  44.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        9.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        5.2%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        3.9%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        3.6%        4.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons