Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092021 210103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  29.3  34.7  33.5  31.5  33.7  36.0  35.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  65.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         89.8  81.0  79.3  77.7  84.4 103.6 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  40.0  42.0  44.0  34.0  12.0   8.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  48.0  56.0  54.0  61.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0   4.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        3.6%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%        8.0%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        2.4%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        2.4%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       11.1%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        4.2%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%       15.4%       15.4%
 70kt / 48h       15.4%        2.8%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%        4.5%        7.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons