Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092021 210104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70    142.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  33.0  32.2  30.4  30.8  33.7  35.5  32.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  12.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         86.1  83.0  81.5  80.0  81.5  87.7  92.7 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  35.0   9.0   8.0  18.0  23.0  40.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  50.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   8.0   7.0  12.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons