Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092021 210105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  26.3  23.8  28.5  33.5  33.7  32.1  37.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   5.0  10.0  20.0  18.0  17.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  93.6 107.7 118.5 137.3 137.3 132.9 137.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  57.0  49.0  31.0  13.0   2.0  -2.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0  12.0  14.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons