Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092021 210106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.60    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  19.8  17.4  21.0  23.9  34.7  39.4  52.7  N  N  F  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  29.0  27.0  23.0  24.0  16.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        142.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 142.0 128.6 124.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  24.0  30.0  18.0   8.0   4.0   1.0  -5.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  71.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   5.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.1%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       14.1%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        4.0%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        4.5%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%