Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH092021 210107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30    148.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  50.7  46.9  60.8  55.3  49.8  69.7  81.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.7 129.4 140.1 137.9 150.0 133.6 104.6  90.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   1.0  11.0  12.0   4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  74.0  65.0  58.0  48.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0  -1.0  10.0   4.0  11.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons