Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  17.6  20.6  26.7  25.1  34.2  28.9  26.7  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6 101.6  99.8  96.2  86.1  86.1  83.0  66.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -4.0  -6.0 -16.0   2.0 -16.0 -10.0 -28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons