Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80     90.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  21.6  23.8  22.7  26.9  23.5  22.2  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  12.0   4.0   3.0  13.0   7.5  14.0   2.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  99.8  94.4  92.7  99.8  86.1  96.2  86.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  25.0  13.0  -5.0   9.0 -24.0 -35.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  43.0  42.0  37.0  35.0  30.0  28.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -8.0 -10.0  -7.0   0.0   3.0  10.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons