Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     89.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  24.9  24.8  25.5  28.6  21.1  21.4  21.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  94.4  94.4  98.0  89.3  86.1  89.3  78.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  13.0  -5.0  12.0   4.0 -29.0 -12.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  44.0  39.0  37.0  33.0  34.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -10.0  -5.0  -4.0   1.0   6.0   6.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons