Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.00     89.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  22.8  22.5  22.6  21.1  19.6  19.1  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   4.0   8.0   3.3   4.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  86.0  91.2  93.0  81.1  86.0  79.6  70.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  -2.0 -28.0  10.0 -38.0 -22.0 -20.0  11.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  36.0  38.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -5.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0   6.0   0.0  -3.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons