Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.20     88.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  26.2  32.2  35.6  33.4  35.4  28.1  26.1  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.1  79.6  78.0  75.0  61.7  58.2  52.7  46.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -11.0 -23.0 -24.0  -4.0 -37.0  -3.0   0.0  U  U VU VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  42.0  40.0  42.0  40.0  43.0  42.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons