Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     87.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  23.7  27.0  22.4  18.9  19.6  17.7  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   3.0   1.5   5.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  87.7  87.7  81.1  79.6  84.3  73.6  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0  17.0   6.0 -29.0 -34.0 -21.0 -13.0 -42.0 VU  U  U VU VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  35.0  33.0  32.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -7.0 -11.0  -1.0  -7.0  -5.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons