Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.50     87.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  25.2  22.4  20.1  22.2  17.9  24.9  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  86.2  79.3  76.1  84.4  74.6  71.5  65.8  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -29.0 -30.0 -25.0 -32.0  -9.0   0.0 -10.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  38.0  38.0  35.0  31.0  31.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons