Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210119 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  22.0  18.4  16.9  31.4  32.4  35.7  39.6  N  N  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.7 106.2 106.2  96.1  91.5  94.6  87.2  81.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -18.0 -20.0  -5.0  -1.0   3.0  -3.0  30.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  37.0  39.0  36.0  40.0  37.0  39.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -10.0   0.0  -3.0 -12.0  -7.0   1.0  -4.0 VF  F  N  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons