Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     82.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  16.1  17.0  21.8  29.7  31.1  35.5  41.7  N  F  F  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   8.0   1.0   0.5   1.5   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 108.0 101.0  93.0  93.0  97.7  88.6  85.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -20.0  -5.0 -20.0 -11.0 -15.0  25.0  23.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  39.0  36.0  36.0  39.0  39.0  43.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons