Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210119 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  15.9  20.3  29.1  27.2  30.3  32.6  48.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   2.0   3.3   4.5   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.8 107.7 101.1  99.6 104.3 101.1  95.0  92.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -5.0 -20.0  -2.0   2.0  -5.0  30.0   0.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  32.0  28.0  30.0  32.0  31.0  30.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -8.0 -12.0  -7.0   1.0  -4.0   4.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons