Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH102021 210120 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.80     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  32.2  30.4  27.5  36.0  42.1  53.6  55.2  N  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.3   0.7   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  98.0  99.6 101.1  96.5  93.6  92.2  93.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -37.0 -28.0 -38.0  -9.0   0.0 -19.0 -35.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  34.0  33.0  32.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   9.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons