Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  27.1  26.5  28.8  38.5  50.2  50.2  50.2  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  46.0  23.0  11.5   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0  94.4  69.6  56.7 112.0 112.0 112.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  73.0  45.0  31.0  12.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0 -10.0  -1.0   5.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%        7.3%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       16.4%       12.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        7.8%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        7.8%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        6.3%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        5.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%