Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30    146.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  25.9  28.3  25.5  31.0  34.6  43.9  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  45.0  31.0  13.0   9.0  21.0   1.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -10.0  -4.0  -6.0   1.0  -5.0   3.0   3.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.6%        7.7%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.7%       28.7%       21.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       19.6%       14.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       19.6%       14.2%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       19.6%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       16.0%       10.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        5.8%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        5.5%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%