Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  25.2  30.2  34.3  49.6  61.4  90.8  93.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  28.0  23.0  20.0  19.0  14.0  11.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 107.0 110.0 104.6  85.5  97.9  91.5  76.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  45.0  31.0  34.0  -1.0   8.0  11.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -9.0  -8.0   1.0   7.0  21.0  24.0  F  F  F  F  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.7%        7.6%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h       14.1%       25.4%       19.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%       15.8%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.1%       15.8%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.1%       13.8%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        6.6%        4.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%