Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    147.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  32.8  31.8  31.4  39.6  30.5  28.4  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  67.7  72.7 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  32.0  30.0  13.0  10.0   1.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  11.0  13.0  11.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.7%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%        9.2%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%