Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210118 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    147.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  31.3  29.2  27.0  22.4  26.1  28.4  23.7  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  31.0  32.0  38.0  41.0  49.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 110.7 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  13.0   0.0   4.0  15.0  38.0   5.0  38.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        1.9%        1.9%