Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210118 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70    147.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  26.4  27.6  23.2  22.7  28.0  19.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 113.6 111.5 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   0.0   5.0  12.0  16.0   6.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  73.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -9.0  -8.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   7.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%