Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210119 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  19.3  19.3  19.3  19.3  19.3  19.3  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 134.6 134.6 134.6 134.6 134.6 134.6 134.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.2%        1.7%