Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    146.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        144.3 144.3 144.3 144.3 144.3 144.3 144.3 144.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        4.0%        2.7%