Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH112021 210119 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10    146.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  28.1  35.4  36.4  26.3  24.0  10.6  10.6  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  40.0  75.0  51.0  68.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        8.1%        5.1%