Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.70     61.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  28.0  35.7  38.2  32.3  30.5  29.3  38.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  34.0  36.0  38.0  46.0  45.0  38.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   7.0  12.0  28.0  26.0  49.0  31.0  93.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.6%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       13.3%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        5.0%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.9%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       12.6%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%