Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  34.6  36.3  33.8  34.4  34.2  30.9  31.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  12.0  28.0  31.0  10.0  37.0  69.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.6%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       13.3%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        4.7%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.7%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.9%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       11.0%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        3.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        5.1%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%        7.0%        7.7%