Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.40     58.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  35.2  33.3  31.8  35.1  29.9  30.7  31.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  41.0  45.0  43.0  35.0  21.0   7.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  39.0  20.0  94.0  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  63.0  68.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   7.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        4.0%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       21.7%       16.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       10.4%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       10.4%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        8.7%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       16.0%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        5.2%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        6.2%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%