Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210118 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.90     55.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  35.2  35.2  35.0  31.6  29.5  22.7  26.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  91.6  34.2  60.4 105.7  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  27.0  65.0  52.0  19.0  68.0  45.0  57.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  69.0  66.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        7.6%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%