Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210119 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.30     51.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  33.8  37.8  36.1  30.3  27.7  28.8  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  10.0  19.0  28.0  46.0  58.0  51.0  36.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0  93.5  91.6 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  83.0  49.0  35.0  87.0  57.0  40.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   7.0   9.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        2.3%        2.4%