Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122021 210119 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  35.0  36.6  29.7  25.9  19.2  19.6  20.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3  77.7  47.7  53.2 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  75.0  44.0  65.0 114.0  43.0  97.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons